Arrests and prosecutions for "endangering state security" (ESS) in China last year continued their retreat from 2008’s historic levels but remained high, according to new estimates produced by The Dui Hua Foundation after an analysis of partial data released by China’s chief prosecutor on Friday.
Based on figures appended to copies of the annual work report delivered on March 11 by Supreme People's Procuratorate (SPP) Prosecutor-General Cao Jianming at the annual plenary session of China’s National People's Congress (NPC), Dui Hua estimates that during 2010 approximately 985 individuals were arrested and nearly 1,180 individuals indicted on state security charges in China.
Continuing Emphasis on "Stability Above All Else"
Since the beginning of 2008, Chinese security forces have clearly been cracking down on perceived threats to political and social stability and targeting members of ethnic minorities, government critics, and rights defenders. One measure of the extent of this crackdown is the unusually high number of arrests and indictments for ESS that have been carried out over the past three years.
In 2008, ESS arrests more than doubled compared to the previous year. Since then, arrests and indictments have generally been declining but remain at levels much higher than had been seen during the preceding decade. (Click on the graph below to view data on ESS arrests and indictments in China since 1998.)
"It's as if the surge in ESS prosecutions in 2008 broke through some invisible barrier and created a new 'normal' level," noted Joshua Rosenzweig, Dui Hua's senior research manager. "Given that there have been an unusually high number of detentions for 'subversion' and 'inciting subversion' over the past few weeks, it seems unlikely that we'll see arrests drop to pre-2008 levels anytime soon, if ever."
Judging from earlier statistics, Dui Hua expects that a large number, perhaps a majority, of ESS cases involve ethnic Tibetans and Uyghurs charged with "splittism" or "inciting splittism" under the provisions of Article 103 of the Criminal Law. Other crimes falling under the ESS category include subversion, inciting subversion, espionage, and trafficking in state secrets for overseas entities. Recent weeks have seen police use charges of subversion and inciting subversion to detain a disturbing number of people, suggesting that these political offenses may account for a higher proportion of total ESS arrests and indictments this year than has been seen in many years.
Discussion of Methodology
As in previous years, the version of the 2010 SPP work report distributed to NPC delegates, members of the media, and other observers included charts breaking down arrest and indictment totals according to crime categories found in China's Criminal Law. In these charts, the three smallest categories—ESS, "endangering national defense interests," and "dereliction of duty by military personnel"—were combined under the legend "Other." Based on more than a decade of published data from the China Law Yearbook, Dui Hua has identified relative stability in the number of arrests and prosecutions made for endangering national defense interests and dereliction of duty by military personnel, with arrests in these two categories remaining at a fairly consistent annual rate of about seven per 20,000 total arrests. If one assumes continued stability for these categories in 2010, then most variation in the “Other” category should be attributable to ESS.
Based on these assumptions, Dui Hua estimates that Chinese law enforcement authorities formally arrested about 985 individuals for ESS in 2010, down 18 percent from 1,208 in 2009 but still more than double the historic low reported in 2005. Similar calculations for ESS indictments yield an estimate of roughly 1,180 in 2010, a slight increase compared to 1,095 in 2009. (Because of frequent delays between arrest and trial, it is not uncommon to see arrests and indictments move in opposite directions during the period of a single year.)
Dui Hua's previous calculations of ESS figures for 2008 and 2009 underestimated the number of arrests and indictments by roughly 5-6 percent. After making slight adjustments to its calculation algorithm, Dui Hua believes its current estimate for 2010 will be even more accurate. Based on previous years' experience, official figures for ESS in 2010 should be publicly available when that year's edition of the China Law Yearbook is published later this year.
Based on figures appended to copies of the annual work report delivered on March 11 by Supreme People's Procuratorate (SPP) Prosecutor-General Cao Jianming at the annual plenary session of China’s National People's Congress (NPC), Dui Hua estimates that during 2010 approximately 985 individuals were arrested and nearly 1,180 individuals indicted on state security charges in China.
Continuing Emphasis on "Stability Above All Else"
Since the beginning of 2008, Chinese security forces have clearly been cracking down on perceived threats to political and social stability and targeting members of ethnic minorities, government critics, and rights defenders. One measure of the extent of this crackdown is the unusually high number of arrests and indictments for ESS that have been carried out over the past three years.
In 2008, ESS arrests more than doubled compared to the previous year. Since then, arrests and indictments have generally been declining but remain at levels much higher than had been seen during the preceding decade. (Click on the graph below to view data on ESS arrests and indictments in China since 1998.)
"It's as if the surge in ESS prosecutions in 2008 broke through some invisible barrier and created a new 'normal' level," noted Joshua Rosenzweig, Dui Hua's senior research manager. "Given that there have been an unusually high number of detentions for 'subversion' and 'inciting subversion' over the past few weeks, it seems unlikely that we'll see arrests drop to pre-2008 levels anytime soon, if ever."
Judging from earlier statistics, Dui Hua expects that a large number, perhaps a majority, of ESS cases involve ethnic Tibetans and Uyghurs charged with "splittism" or "inciting splittism" under the provisions of Article 103 of the Criminal Law. Other crimes falling under the ESS category include subversion, inciting subversion, espionage, and trafficking in state secrets for overseas entities. Recent weeks have seen police use charges of subversion and inciting subversion to detain a disturbing number of people, suggesting that these political offenses may account for a higher proportion of total ESS arrests and indictments this year than has been seen in many years.
Discussion of Methodology
As in previous years, the version of the 2010 SPP work report distributed to NPC delegates, members of the media, and other observers included charts breaking down arrest and indictment totals according to crime categories found in China's Criminal Law. In these charts, the three smallest categories—ESS, "endangering national defense interests," and "dereliction of duty by military personnel"—were combined under the legend "Other." Based on more than a decade of published data from the China Law Yearbook, Dui Hua has identified relative stability in the number of arrests and prosecutions made for endangering national defense interests and dereliction of duty by military personnel, with arrests in these two categories remaining at a fairly consistent annual rate of about seven per 20,000 total arrests. If one assumes continued stability for these categories in 2010, then most variation in the “Other” category should be attributable to ESS.
Based on these assumptions, Dui Hua estimates that Chinese law enforcement authorities formally arrested about 985 individuals for ESS in 2010, down 18 percent from 1,208 in 2009 but still more than double the historic low reported in 2005. Similar calculations for ESS indictments yield an estimate of roughly 1,180 in 2010, a slight increase compared to 1,095 in 2009. (Because of frequent delays between arrest and trial, it is not uncommon to see arrests and indictments move in opposite directions during the period of a single year.)
Dui Hua's previous calculations of ESS figures for 2008 and 2009 underestimated the number of arrests and indictments by roughly 5-6 percent. After making slight adjustments to its calculation algorithm, Dui Hua believes its current estimate for 2010 will be even more accurate. Based on previous years' experience, official figures for ESS in 2010 should be publicly available when that year's edition of the China Law Yearbook is published later this year.
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